Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.
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Cloud computing holds the promise of reduced costs through economies of scale. To realize this promise, cloud computing vendors typically solve sequential resource allocation problems, where customer workloads are packed on shared hardware. Virtual machines (VM) form the foundation of modern cloud computing as they help logically abstract user compute from shared physical infrastructure. Traditionally, VM packing problems are solved by predicting demand, followed by a Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization over a future horizon. We introduce an approximate formulation of an industrial VM packing problem as an MILP with soft-constraints parameterized by the predictions. Recently, predict-and-optimize (PnO) was proposed for end-to-end training of prediction models by back-propagating the cost of decisions through the optimization problem. But, PnO is unable to scale to the large prediction horizons prevalent in cloud computing. To tackle this issue, we propose the Predict-and-Critic (PnC) framework that outperforms PnO with just a two-step horizon by leveraging reinforcement learning. PnC jointly trains a prediction model and a terminal Q function that approximates cost-to-go over a long horizon, by back-propagating the cost of decisions through the optimization problem \emph{and from the future}. The terminal Q function allows us to solve a much smaller two-step horizon optimization problem than the multi-step horizon necessary in PnO. We evaluate PnO and the PnC framework on two datasets, three workloads, and with disturbances not modeled in the optimization problem. We find that PnC significantly improves decision quality over PnO, even when the optimization problem is not a perfect representation of reality. We also find that hardening the soft constraints of the MILP and back-propagating through the constraints improves decision quality for both PnO and PnC.
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Recently, graph neural networks have been gaining a lot of attention to simulate dynamical systems due to their inductive nature leading to zero-shot generalizability. Similarly, physics-informed inductive biases in deep-learning frameworks have been shown to give superior performance in learning the dynamics of physical systems. There is a growing volume of literature that attempts to combine these two approaches. Here, we evaluate the performance of thirteen different graph neural networks, namely, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian graph neural networks, graph neural ODE, and their variants with explicit constraints and different architectures. We briefly explain the theoretical formulation highlighting the similarities and differences in the inductive biases and graph architecture of these systems. We evaluate these models on spring, pendulum, gravitational, and 3D deformable solid systems to compare the performance in terms of rollout error, conserved quantities such as energy and momentum, and generalizability to unseen system sizes. Our study demonstrates that GNNs with additional inductive biases, such as explicit constraints and decoupling of kinetic and potential energies, exhibit significantly enhanced performance. Further, all the physics-informed GNNs exhibit zero-shot generalizability to system sizes an order of magnitude larger than the training system, thus providing a promising route to simulate large-scale realistic systems.
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双重拍卖可以使货物在多个买卖双方之间进行分散化转移,从而支持许多在线市场的运作。买卖双方通过竞标在这些市场上竞争,但经常不知道自己的估值A-Priori。随着分配和定价通过出价进行,​​参与者的盈利能力,因此这些市场的可持续性取决于通过重复互动的各自学习估值的至关重要。我们启动对购买者和卖家方强盗反馈的双重拍卖市场的研究。我们以基于信心的基于信心的招标来展示,“平均定价”参与者之间有有效的价格发现。特别是,交换商品的买卖双方在$ t $ rounds中遗憾的是$ o(\ sqrt {t})$。不从交易所中受益的买家和卖家又只经历$ o(\ log {t}/ \ delta)$后悔的$ t $ rounds,其中$ \ delta $是最低价格差距。我们通过证明良好的固定价格(一个比双重拍卖更简单的学习问题)来增强我们的上限 - $ \ omega(\ sqrt {t})$遗憾在某些市场中是无法实现的。
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